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The 2023 elections in Telangana are going to be crucial. While the ruling BRS wants to win again and score a hattrick, the Congress party that won in Karnataka wants to make its debut in the newly carved out Telangana state. On the flip side, the BJP is trying its best to make an impact.
A political consultancy (Chanakyya) conducted surveys in the state in October and November months and made its analysis based on it. The survey s
BJP’s Vote Percentage Surge: In October, BJP garnered an 11% vote share across the state, which has now increased to 15% in November. This surge is particularly noticeable in Rangareddy, Adilabad, and Nizamabad districts, impacting Congress negatively in these areas.
Congress Dominance in Nalgonda and Khammam Districts: Congress exhibits significant strength in Nalgonda and Khammam districts, leading with a 12-15% vote share. Projections suggest Congress could secure 18 to 21 seats from these districts, with strong local leadership eliminating the need for top-level campaigning.
Congress Surge in Hyderabad District: Congress has experienced a 5-7% rise in vote share in Hyderabad district over the past month, attributed to the shift of Kamma and Muslim votes from BRS. If these trends persist, Congress might spring surprises in this district.
Congress Strength in Karimnagar and Medak: Despite being traditionally viewed as weak for Congress, the party is ahead of BRS in Karimnagar and is anticipated to win over 50% of the seats in Medak. BJP’s performance in these regions is below expectations, especially in the coal mine area.
Key Election Dynamics:
BJP’s Decisive Role: BJP emerges as the crucial factor, potentially deciding or balancing the election. Approximately 75% of voters seem to be choosing between supporting BRS’s government or aiming to remove it. Further rise in BJP support, except in Adilabad, Nizamabad, and Rangareddy, could favour a BRS-led government.
Congress’s Prospects: The likelihood of a comfortable Congress government in Telangana depends on its resurgence in Adilabad, Nizamabad, and Rangareddy districts. If successful, Congress could tip the scales in its favour.
Bottom line: On the whole, it looks like the people of Telangana may give a shock to the ruling BRS. However, it all depends on various factors and election dynamics. Poll management is a key factor that is known on election day. All these make an interesting prediction for Telangana Elections 2023.
