Will YS Jagan Join BJP Led NDA — Prof K Nageshwar

Speculation is rife in political and media circles on the possibility of YSR Congress joining the ruling NDA at the centre. This political grapevine is amidst state BJP taking an aggressive stand on YS Jagan government’s alleged anti-Hindu rule. Politics have a character of taking a strange turn to suit the political expediency at a given point of time.

The BJP has a formidable majority in Lok Sabha. The YSR Congress, along with few other regional parties, has been backing the NDA regime in Rajya Sabha. Interestingly, both the YSR Congress and the TDP have been avidly supporting every controversial legislation of the Modi government.

The YSR Congress had supported the controversial Citizenship Amendment Bill in Parliament even when BJP allies like Janata Dal (U) and AGP had expressed reservations. Similarly, the YSR Congress unequivocally supported three farm bills even when BJP allies like Akalidal opposed them. The BJP, therefore, does not need YSR Congress in NDA to get its bills passed.

But, the saffron party has been facing a perception challenge with its key allies deserting the party. The TDP left the NDA in the run-up to the 2019 polls. Shiva Sena parted ways despite ideological commonalities. The two-decade old ally Shiromani Akalidal recently walked out of the ruling NDA over the farm bills. The JJP in Haryana faces the heat and may find it challenging to remain in NDA if the farmers’ protests intensify.

Thus the BJP is desperate to refurbish its image as a party that can attract allies.

The imperatives of national politics make BJP look towards YSR Congress. The TDP is also more than willing to rejoin the NDA. But, the YSR Congress, with a sizeable presence in Parliament, is certainly more alluring for the BJP.

However, the BJP is only worried that its bonhomie with YSR Congress will spoil its ambitions to emerge as a major opposition force replacing the vanquished TDP. But, the BJP national leadership is aware of the fact that the party has no reasonable hopes to emerge stronger in Andhra Pradesh.

As a party that supported bifurcation of state against the wishes of Seemandhra people and as a party that refuses to implement its own promise of special category status, the BJP finds it extremely difficult to win the support of people of this state. Thus, the BJP took to aggressive pan-Hindu mobilisation exploiting the Christian roots of the Chief Minister’s family. But, will this strategy succeed in a state that hardly had any major politico-religious mobilisation.

Thus, the BJP has to choose between the YSRCP requirement in national politics and the party’s ambitions to revive in the state.
But, the YSR Congress seems to be not so keen on joining the NDA. It does not need the support of the party that hardly has any presence in the state. Its alliance with BJP would incur the wrath of the people. The special status continues to be an issue so dear to the people of the state. The social base of YSR Congress usually is hostile to party joining with the BJP.

However, Jagan’s vulnerability is the persisting cases and the notoriety with which Modi dispensation uses the central agencies for a political project. Besides, YS Jagan needs centre’s cooperation to fix Chandrababu Naidu and get a nod for his plans like three capitals, abolition of the Legislative Council etc. Therefore, Jagan has to risk his political stakes to join the NDA for few concessions that hardly have any significant political gains. But, given his vulnerabilities, he may not summarily reject the proposal of Modi-Shah duo in case any such thing is made.

By – Prof K Nageshwar

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