YSRCP vs Alliance: Who has the edge after Exit Polls ?

Exit polls, which are widely believed to be a prelude to election results by psephologists and political strategists across the country, were finally out on Saturday evening as the final phase of polling for the 2024 Loksabha elections concluded. Unlike before, exit polls this time have assumed great significance because many reliable political experts found it very difficult to gauge the public pulse before elections in several states due to various factors. Andhra Pradesh, in particular, has been the cynosure of the entire nation because the BJP went into a grand alliance with the TDP and Janasena. 

Amidst huge expectations from the supporters of the YSRCP and alliance parties, various exit polls revealed the mood of the voters in Andhra Pradesh. While the majority of the national survey teams predicted a landslide victory for the NDA alliance (TDP+JSP+BJP), a considerable number of regional surveys gave an edge to the YSRCP led by Jagan Mohan Reddy. So, both parties are likely to be satisfied for now with these predictions, and the wait for June 4th results intensifies further. 

The biggest takeaway for the NDA alliance in these exit polls is that some of the reliable national survey teams led by Today’s Chanakya, NDTV, India TV CNX, India Today: My Axis, ABP: C Voter, CNN, and D Dynamic: India News predicted that the NDA alliance will secure a thumping majority in the parliament elections. Most of these surveys projected that the NDA alliance is likely to upset the YSRCP in more than 100 seats out of the 175 assembly segments. A few of them even stated that YSRCP would be confined to less than 50 seats. 

India Today: My Axis, which is the most successful survey group, revealed that the NDA alliance will romp home with 21 MPs, while the YSRCP is likely to get only 4 MPs. They didn’t reveal the forecast for assembly seats but indicated that it was going to be a resounding mandate for the alliance partners. It was a surprising revelation that Chandra Babu Naidu’s arrest last year has changed the dynamics of AP politics and resulted in huge backlash from the people of the state. 

The YSRCP has also got plenty to cheer for with these exit polls because some of the notable surveys, like those of AARA Mastaan, who has an impressive track record of catching the public pulse better than any other regional survey team, have categorically stated that Jagan Mohan Reddy will retain power in these elections. AARA predicted that the YSRCP would walk home even with a slender majority in the worst case. It revealed that the YSRCP is poised to secure 94–104 seats, while the NDA alliance will end up with 71–81 seats. The fact that AARA is an Andhra-based survey team makes it more reliable and trustworthy. So, the YSRCP is betting big on their analysis. 

Among those others who also gave exit polls in favor of YSRCP are Janmat Polls, Poll Strategy, Partha Surveys, TV 9, and NTV. All these groups gave numbers in the range of 100 for the YSRCP. The only national survey that is inclined towards the ruling party came from the Times Now group, which predicted 14 MP seats. The group earlier predicted that YSRCP was protected from winning all 25 MP seats last year. 

We have to wait for two more days to find out which of these projections will turn out to be the most accurate after the final results are announced by the Election Commission of India.