Bihar Exit Polls: Big Shock To Nitish & Modi

With the final phase of voting coming to an end in Bihar, exit polls began streaming on television screens on Saturday evening and many, including the India Today-Axis My India, predicted that Tejashwi Yadav-led Mahaghatbandhan (Grand Alliance) is likely to storm to power with a comfortable majority of 139-161 seats in the 243-member House and secure 44 per cent votes. The India Today exit polls predicted that the National Democratic Alliance, comprising the JD(U), BJP, HAM, and VIP is projected to win 69-91 seats and secure 39 per cent votes.

Most exit polls forecast that the RJD-Congress-Left alliance has a clear edge over the JD(U)-BJP coalition. At the same time, all polls predicted that Chirag Paswan’s Lok Janshakti Party, which went alone, would end up with single-digit seats. However, Paswan hopes to play a key role in government formation after the elections.

Meanwhile, one poll forecast that the Tejashwi’s RJD-led Opposition alliance could get a two-thirds majority while another said it would cross the halfway mark easily.

Clear majority to Grand Alliance

Of the eight exit polls conducted by various organisations, two gave a clear lead to the RJD-led Grand alliance. The India Today-Axis My India poll predicted that the Tejashwi Yadav-led Opposition alliance would cross the halfway mark of 122 while the CNN-NEWS 18-Today’s Chanakya poll forecast the RJD-led alliance a landslide majority of 180 seats (plus or minus 11). The Chanakya poll gave the JD(U)-BJP alliance just 55 seats.

In what can be termed bad news for incumbent Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, who hopes to be elected for a record fourth term, many exit polls predicted that the BJP would perform much better than the JD(U).

Hung Assembly

Another national pollster, Times Now-CVoter, in its detailed analysis predicted a hung Assembly in Bihar elections 2020. It said that the RJD-alliance would get 120 seats and JD(U)-BJP alliance 116 seats. The ABP News-C Voter poll predicted that the Tejaswhi’s RJD-Congress-Left alliance would secure 108-131 seats and that the JD(U)-BJP alliance between 104 and 128 seats.

The NEWSX-DV research poll predicted a photo finish, with the JD(U)-BJP alliance to secure 110-117 seats and the Opposition alliance 108-123 seats.

Key role in govt. formation

The exit poll of TV9 Bharatvarsh predicted that the RJD-Congress alliance would get something between 115 and 125 seats while the JD(U)-BJP alliance would secure 110-120 seats.

The Republic Jan Ki Baat survey forecast a comfortable lead to the Opposition alliance with 118-138 seats and that JD(U)-BJP coalition would end up with seats between
91 and 117.

The India Ahead-ETG poll predicted the RJD-led alliance would get 111-129 seats while the JD(U)-BJP alliance 106-122 seats. The Republic survey gave the BJP 60-75 seats and the JD(U) 31-42 seats. The India Ahead poll predicted that the JD(U) would get 44-50 seats and the BJP 58-64.

An exit poll is a survey conducted soon after a voter walks out after casting his/her vote. It aims at predicting the result based on the information collected from voters.

However, a clear picture will emerge only after the counting scheduled on November 10.

Meanwhile, two pollsters, ABP News-C Voter and India Today- My Axis said that the youngsters showed a leaning towards Tejashwi Yadav while more aged voters prefer Nitish. The youth supported the Mahagathbandhan this time.

The India Today-Axis My India exit poll also reported that 47 per cent of voters, aged between 18 to 35 years, back Tejashwi Yadav while voters aged 51 and above wanted incumbent Nitish back in power.