Bihar Polls: AIMIM Splits RJD Votes, LJP Cuts Into JD(U) Votebank

While counting of votes polled in the three phase of elections held in Bihar is underway, let us try to analyse how votes would get split among the various political parties which contested for the 243 seats.

Political observers opine that Asaduddin Owaisi’s AIMIM would eat into Tejashwi’s RJD votes while those of Chirag Paswan’s LJP would cut into Nitish Kumar’s JD(U) votes.

In the ongoing Assembly elections, the AIMIM is contesting on 20 seats and the majority of them are in Kishanganj, Katihar, Purnea and Araria districts.

AIMIM cuts into MGB tally

The AIMIM reportedly has won five seats so far: Akhtarul Iman from Amour Assembly constituency, Muhammed Izhar Asfi from Kochadhamam Assembly constituency, Shahnawaz Alam from Jokihat Assembly constituency, Syed Ruknuddin from Baisi Assembly constituency, and Azhar Nayeemi from Bahadurgunj Assembly constituency.

Congress leader Adhir Ranjan Choudhary alleged that Asaduddin Owaisi’s AIMIM party, which opened its account in Kishanganj district in 2015, was playing a role in cutting the alliance Mahagathbandhan’s votes in the Bihar Assembly elections where counting is underway.

“We were confident of a victory in Bihar but then some smaller parties cost us,” he said. “Owaisi’s party has played a role in cutting our votes, Owaisi has been used by the BJP to target us.”

During polling, the Congress had targeted Owaisi and termed him the B-team of the BJP. The AIMIM fielded candidates in Seemanchal where the minority votes are in a sizeable number. The Congress had asked when the AIMIM was contesting on only nine seats in Telangana then how was it contesting on so many seats in other states.

The Seemanchal and Kosi regions in Bihar are expected to provide a good opportunity to all political parties. Purnea, Araria, Kishanganj, Katihar, Supaul are considered Muslim dominant areas, apart from the presence of the Yadav, OBC and upper caste communities. Such an equation becomes favourable even for the smaller parties.

At the same time, it is being seen that the Muslims would also alienate from the JD(U).

After the 2010 Bihar Assembly elections, the BJP-JD (U) ties grew stronger but Muslim leaders in Nitish Kumar’s JD(U) have strayed away and there are virtually no leaders from the community in the party apart from MLC and former Rajya Sabha MP Ghulam Rasool Baliyawi.

In 2017, the JD(U) pulled out of the mega coalition or Mahagathbandhan with the RJD and Congress and took sides with the BJP. At this time, the Muslim community likened JD(U) to a stab in the back and this led to more alienation of Muslim leadership.

LJP eats into votes of JD(U)

Meanwhile, Paswan’s Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) is likely to play the role of a votecutter, eating into the votes of the JD(U), alliance partner of the NDA, with which it broke the ties before heading for the Assembly polls.

It would damage the JD(U)’s prospects in many seats by splitting the SC-Paswan and the upper caste votes. With a vote share of 7 per cent, the LJP is likely to win 3-5 seats, with two of them being in the Bhojpur region and one in Mithilanchal.

In October, the LJP walked out of the NDA but remained with the BJP at the Centre and is now fighting against the JD (U) in this Assembly election. The LJP made it clear that it would not fight the election under JD(U) president and Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s leadership of the ruling alliance in the state.

In the last Assembly elections held in 2015, the LJP contested 45 of the state’s 243 seats but emerged victorious only in two.

LJP president Chirag Paswan, son of Union Minister and party founder late Ram Vilas Paswan, has been opposing Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s JD(U) government alleged poor governance, especially since the outbreak of the Covid pandemic. Chirag has also been complaining of absence of LJP’s representation in Nitish Kumar’s cabinet. He publicly spoke of the total breakdown of communication between him and Nitish Kumar.

The JD(U) has often brushed off Chirag as someone with negligible influence in Bihar with only two seats.

This time, the LJP has put up candidates against all 115 JD(U) contestants. The JD(U) has been hampered by defections largely due to the LJP’s rebellion.

While heading into the third phase of the Bihar Assembly poll, Nitish Kumar had to expel more than 30 leaders from the party for anti-party activities.

In such a situation, where smaller parties are likely to lead to splitting of votes of major alliances, only time can tell us how would the fortunes of political parties unravel after the counting process ends.