Tirupati By-Poll: What Is At Stake?

High voltage political battle has begun for the Tirupati by-election necessitated by the death of YSR Congress sitting MP Balli Durga Prasad Rao. The party won this seat in the 2019 elections polling a record 55.03 percent votes. This is significantly higher than the 2014 tally when the YSR Congress polled 47.84 percent votes. The ruling YSR Congress swept the recently held Tirupati municipal corporation elections winning 48 out of 49 divisions. The TDP was decimated as it emerged victorious in only one division. The BJP and other parties drew a blank. Thus, with an unassailable lead, Tirupati by-election is a walk in the park to YSR Congress. Barring a miracle, the YS Jagan party is all set to retain the seat with the majority alone to be predicted. 

The TDP is therefore keen on reducing the winning margin of YSR Congress than wresting the seat from it. The party believes the by-poll to be crucial for reviving the morale of the cadre vanquished by the YSR Congress juggernaut in the recently held elections to the local bodies. Chandrababu Naidu known for his killer instinct in politics is leaving no stone unturned to make a sizeable dent into YSR Congress vote share. The opposition TDP has not much to lose in the by-election, as it is not its sitting seat. But, any further erosion in its vote share can prove to be a dampener for the TDP.

The BJP is facing an uphill task given its pathetic performance in the past. The party polled a mere 16,000 votes that account for only a 1.22 percent vote share in 2019 elections. NOTA polled substantially higher votes (25,000) than BJP. The congress performance was no different in 2019. Nothing much has changed for these parties since then. 

The Amravati imbroglio, the entanglement over the sale of Vishakhapatnam steel plant, continuing anger over the denial of special status, and unfulfillment of other bifurcation promises have further driven the BJP into a political quagmire. The BJP hopes to come out of it and make its presence felt in the by-poll, thanks to the support from Pawan Kalyan-led Jana Sena. But, there is resentment among Jana Sainiks from being denied an opportunity to contest in a seat where the saffron party too has no stakes. Worried over the adverse impact of hurt sentiment in Jana Sena, BJP state president Somu Veerraju made a sensational statement claiming that Prime Minister Modi wanted Pawan Kalyan to be the Chief Minister. Will the party that denied a seat in a by-poll offer chief ministerial gaddi to Pawan Kalyan?

The YSR Congress is running a no-holds-barred battle at the hustings despite seemingly invincible in a bid to secure a record margin to send a strong political message to its adversaries. How best the divided opposition could halt the political offensive from the ruling party is something to be watched in this by-poll.

-By Prof K Nageshwar

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