Exit Polls: Ruling Parties To Retain Power In Three States, 2 Bypolls

With the eighth and last phase of polling ending in West Bengal on Thursday evening, all eyes are set on the exit polls of the five states which went for elections in the recent past.

Polls were conducted in four states — Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Assam, too in the last few months.

These apart, bypolls were held for Nagarjunasagar Assembly constituency in Telangana and and Tirupati Lok Sabha constituency in Andhra Pradesh.

The counting of votes in all the five states and the two bypolls is scheduled on May 2 and West Bengal is grabbing all the attention what with the BJP repeatedly claiming that it would clinch power in the state, showing the door to Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress.

Tirupati in YCP kitty

In Tirupati bypoll, Aaraa predicted 65.85% vote share to the YCP and 23.1% to the TDP, 7.3% to the BJP, which means the TDP would find it hard to save its deposit.

Atma Sakshi also says YCP is likely to win with 3.5 lakh vote majority in the Tirupati bypoll.

Being the ruling party, it is being said that the YCP will certainly register victory from here.

TRS to assert power in Nagarjunasagar

Coming to Nagarjunasagar bypoll, Mission Chanakya predicted 21,000 plus vote majority to the TRS against the Congress.

According to Atma Sakshi, TRS is predicted to get 43.5% vote share, Congress 39.5% and the BJP a meagre 6.5% even while it scared the ruling party out of its wits in the Dubbak bypoll and GHMC polls held earlier.

Didi to win over Modi in West Bengal

The much-hyped West Bengal polls were held in eight phases even when the Assembly strength was only 284 seats and the reasons for this are not known.

Despite the threat of second wave of Coronavirus, Mamata Banerjee (Didi) and Modi campaigned aggressively in the state.

According to Atma Sakshi, Mamata Banerjee’s TMC will get a vote share of 43.5% (175-181 seats), BJP 31.5% (85-92), Samyukta Morcha 15.5% (32-39).

C-Voter predicted TMC would clinch 162 seats, BJP 115 seats while Congress-Left (Samyukta Morcha) combine would confine to only 15 seats.

But Republic-CNX and People’s Pulse foresees TMC would be trailing behind the BJP in the results. Republic-CNX says TMC would win 128-138 seats while BJP would get 138-148 seats.

People’s Pulse said BJP would win 172-192 seats while TMC would get only 64-88 seats.

Didi is expected to win almost all the 30% minority votes and retain power while the BJP would be considered to have won even if it gains 120-130 seats, as it is a sharp rise from the 3 seats it won in 2016.

LDF to retain power in Kerala

In Kerala, the LDF is likely to retain its position despite Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan facing allegations of involvement in gold smuggling and the state government’s decision to allow women of all ages into the Sabarimala temple, as per the apex court order.

Exit polls indicate that the Congress-led UDF is lagging behind even when Congress leader and Wayanad MP Rahul Gandhi performed many feats like swimming and cooking. Even his sister Piryanka Gandhi Wadra also campaigned during the polls.

Poll analysts feel that Pinarayi’s image was not dented as the gold smuggling case was foisted against him by the BJP. It could be that people have reposed faith in him for handling the Covid crisis and floods effectively. Guest workers were not discriminated when they reached home during Corona crisis.

Clear victory for DMK alliance in TN

In Tamil Nadu, this is the first time that polls were held without the presence of stalwarts like Karunanidhi and Jayalalithaa.

All exit polls predicted a clear victory for the DMK-led rainbow alliance and placed AIADMK-led alliance in the second position. After the AIADMK had been in the ruling for two terms, DMK’s victory is almost certain this time.

While the Congress forged an alliance with the DMK, the BJP joined hands with the AIADMK in the state.

Though the Congress fielded candidates only from a few constituencies, it is being said that Congress would emerge victorious as it had forged an alliance with a winning partner.

Further, it is being said that the BJP would open account in the southern state and win 2-3 seats while Kamal Haasan’s MNM would get 5 seats.

Republic TV exit polls said that DMK-Congress-Left-MDMK combine would clinch 160-170 seats of the total 234 seats while the AIADMK is expected to win 58-68 seats.

Clear edge to BJP in Assam

In Assam, BJP is set to retain power, according to the exit polls.

India Today-Axis My India predicted 75-85 seats in the 126-member assembly and 40-50 to the Congress-led opposition. Today’s Chanakya predicted 70 seats for the BJP alliance and 56 for the Congress-led opposition.

Republic CNX exit poll also projected a comfortable win for BJP.

These predictions give a clear edge to the BJP-led alliance over the Congress-led opposition.

At present, Assam is under the BJP-led NDA rule, having won 86 of 126 seats in the 2016 Assembly elections. This time, the BJP is facing the grand alliance of eight parties, including the Congress and Badruddin Ajmal’s AIUDF. The BJP joined hands with Asom Gana Parishad and UPP(L).

BJP-led NDA to register win in Puducherry

In the Union Territory, the exit polls predict BJP-led NDA to register a landslide victory.

In the 30-seat Puducherry Assembly, India Today-Axis My India exit poll projected 20-24 seats to the AINRC-BJP alliance while the Congress-led SDA is likely to bag only 6-10 seats.

According to the Republic-CNX exit poll, the Congress-led SDA is predicted to give a tough fight to the BJP-led NDA. The NDA is expected to bag 16-20 seats, just crossing the halfway mark, while the SDA is likely to strike between the 11-13 mark.

The C-Voter exit poll data predicts the NDA to form the government with 21 out of 30 seats in the Assembly. The UPA, including the Congress and DMK, is projected to get only eight seats.

On February 22, the Congress-led government collapsed in Puducherry and since then, it has been under the President’s Rule.