Will The COVID Disaster Adversely Impact Modi’s Comeback Chances In 2024?

The language may vary. Some may not comment openly. But, even the admirers of Modi till yesterday are critical of BJP led central government’s handling of COVID second wave. Even the party’s ideological think tank RSS acknowledged the fact that the negligence on the part of the government has landed the country into this abyss. The RSS journal, the Organiser in an article commented that Covid has caused the BJP dearer, at least in the last two phases of West Bengal Assembly elections. 

Political observers interpret the recent debacle of BJP in Uttar Pradesh panchayat polls also to the mishandling of the COVID crisis by the Yogi Adityanath government. The BJP suffered huge losses in the elections to the grassroots political institutions at a time when the key state goes for assembly elections in the near future. 

Thus, a lot is speculated in the media over the possible adverse impact of the central government’s bizarre failure in containing COVID second wave and the electoral fortunes of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. But, any premature judgment would be fallacious given the capability of BJP in general and Narendra Modi, in particular, to bounce back. Indian elections need not necessarily reflect the quality of governance of incumbent administration. Quite often administrative incompetence does not matter in defining the people’s mandate, that too BJP with its strong organizational and propaganda machine and consummate polarization formulae has the immense potential to face the headwinds. 

BJP and Modi can turn the crisis into an opportunity. The demonetization fiasco was presented to India’s poor as Modi’s tryst with Robin Hood’s economics of robbing the rich to pay the poor. 

2024 is a too-long period in politics. Public mood can undergo significant change especially when there is such a time gap. Meanwhile, many events can occur, many more issues can crop up that can emotionally rally the people behind, forgetting the sufferings inflicted on them by poor pandemic governance. Balakote airstrikes that triggered anti-Pakistan sentiment, the Pulwama terrorist attack that roused the nationalist fervour helped the BJP to tide over discontent in the run-up to 2019 elections. 

Thanks to the Supreme Court verdict, Ram Mandir is all likely to be completed before the 2024 elections. Prime Minister Modi is adept at setting the poll-friendly timetable. This can be a powerful weapon for BJP to achieve pan-India Hindu consolidation. The absence of a coherent opposition and a strong leader who could match the popularity of Narendra Modi in the adversarial camp are added advantages to the BJP. The pusillanimous regional parties are anyhow there to compensate even if BJP falls short of the requisite majority.

The failure of the congress to revive and the absence of any other credible national alternative to BJP’s juggernaut contributes to the invincibility of the saffron brigade. 

Thus, the COVID mismanagement is certainly worrying BJP. But, the opposition will be caught on the wrong foot if it indulges in premature celebrations. 

By – Prof K Nageshwar

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