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When will India come out of COVID-19 pandemic? This question haunts rulers and the ruled alike. With the daily cases consistently declining for the last three weeks, hopes of an early end to the pandemic are visible. The latest estimates released by a central government panel comprising of IIT-ICMR experts provide some answers to this vexed question.
The daily new cases which is a significant indicator of the intensity of the pandemic has come down from around 97 thousand to 60,000. For the first time in the last two months, India no longer has the dubious distinction of reporting highest number of daily new cases in the world as United States surpasses yet again. Not just the daily new cases, even the number of deaths due to COVID-19 are also on the decline. However, the fear of second wave of infections still lingers with the winter and festival seasons approaching simultaneously.
The European experience suggests the impending danger of second wave of infections during the winter. The European continent, especially countries like Germany, has relatively come out of the pandemic, but, the infections are again surging in Europe, with daily new cases reaching one lakh again.
The Kerala experience makes us cautious of the vulnerabilities due to festival season. This southern state of India known for its health care standards has appreciably dealt with the pandemic much before India awoke to the challenge. But, Kerala today is among the five states where COVID-19 is still alarming. The other four include West Bengal, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and Karnataka. Among several reasons, the Onam festival observed during August has led to spiraling of cases in Kerala. Thus, the ensuing winter and the festival season poses a serious challenge. The central panel also felt that the trajectory of COVID-19 in India may significantly be impacted by these two factors.
India is likely to reach the end of the pandemic by the end of February 2021, if the nation continues to adhere to COVID-19 protocols.
India today has a total cases of 75 lakhs. But, the active cases has come down to less than 8 lakhs, lowest since the pandemic. The central panel estimates that India is likely to have 106 lakh people infected by the end of the pandemic. India also has reported 1.14 lakh deaths so far. If these gains are retained and further consolidated, the country will almost be free from the pandemic by the onset of summer. The central panel further estimates that around 30 percent of Indians got effected so far, indicating possibility of many more infections getting reported before the pandemic leaves India. Therefore, there is no room for complacency. Any slackening in the guard against the pandemic may prove to be disastrous.
— By Prof K Nageshwar
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